Farmers should act now to ensure that their profits are sustainable in light of warnings the commodity price boom is coming to an end, according to strategic farming business consultant Peter Floyd.

Prospects for farming are starting to look less bullish as the slowdown in the US economy threatens to end the commodity price boom that has underpinned dairy farmers' incomes. The ANZ world commodity price index last week showed a 1.7% dip in dairy prices in December 2007, the first decline since August 2006. And commentators are warning that Asian markets - up to now a ready recipient of much of New Zealand's recent dairy exports - would start to balk at paying high prices as they felt the impacts of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Peter Floyd, Managing Director of eCOGENT.biz, says low lamb and wool prices, the high Kiwi dollar, oil pushing $US100 per barrel and an extended dry period forecast for much of the country will also put increasing pressure on farmers' livelihoods.

"Farmers need to act now and work smarter, not harder, by putting strategies in place to drive net profit in order to safeguard their future," he says.

"Farmers need to protect their businesses against falling profits by re-evaluating their pasture management and stock policies. Measuring and forecasting daily profit is another critical tool for ensuring a sustainable business, no matter what the market is doing," Floyd says.

"By measuring profit per kilo of dry matter eaten by stock, farmers can focus on the best ways of growing feed and the most efficient stock that will convert it into dollars of profit."

Floyd points out that pouring on soluble phosphate and nitrogen fertilisers is no longer sustainable in terms of either profitability or the environment. Research shows that soil carbon and nutrients are being lost, and the capacity of soils to withstand dry periods is reducing.

"There is no quick fix, but farmers can learn and use better soil and pasture management strategies, and take advantage of new sustainable farming techniques and business technologies which also have the advantage of driving profit," he says.

Profit driven and environmentally sustainable approaches to farm business management will be in the spotlight at a Farming For Change Conference in Christchurch next month, hosted by eCOGENT.biz.

As well as renowned US biological agriculture scientist Dr Arden Anderson, speakers now confirmed include Australian soil carbon experts Michael and Louisa Kiely, and US vet Dr Paul Dettloff*.

"Daily profit assessment methods, carbon farming**, and soil and pasture cover management are now starting to be used very successfully to future-proof farming businesses and we believe these are going to become increasingly critical as the market evolves," Floyd says.